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Hydrological drought analysis in the Hupsel basin using different physically-based models.

This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

Three different physically-based models were applied to the Hupsel basin to explore their potential to simulate hydrological droughts. The models include water balance models with a simple (BILAN) or a detailed description of the évapotranspiration process (HBVMOR) and a groundwater and surface water flow model (MOGROW). Onset, duration and deficit volume of drought events were derived from observed and simulated hydrographs for the period 1980-1983. Onset of the major drought, i.e. 1982 was well predicted with HBVMOR and MOGROW, whereas BILAN has some limitations because of the monthly time step. Duration and deficit volume of the 1982 drought were underestimated by all models (10-30%). HBVMOR performs best when all droughts events were considered (differences: 15-20%). The strength of the physically-based models lies within their possibility to explore the impact of man-induced changes on droughts, but they still need some improvement if a very accurate simulation of low flows and associated droughts is required.