Knowledge about future oceanographic events will assist governments to better manage risk in coastal zones, a crucial task in the light of projected sea level rise, population growth and economic development. In this study, a 31-year data set of deep water wave climate parameters and bathymetry measurements (yearly cross-shore transect surveys) at Noordwijk, the Netherlands, were analysed to jointly estimate storm events variates of deep water wave conditions, and to probabilistically compute dune erosion volume and the resulting dune retreat distance with the simulated wave climate and possible local sea level rise scenarios by 2100. The probabilistic dune retreat models were applied and adjusted to the study site. Based on the outcomes of this application, a modelling technique can be established to propose a framework for probabilistically describing the coastal erosion and recession along the coast protected by dunes.