Published in

Nature Research, Nature Climate Change, 5(1), p. 261-265, 2011

DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1170

Links

Tools

Export citation

Search in Google Scholar

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

Full text: Download

Green circle
Preprint: archiving allowed
Orange circle
Postprint: archiving restricted
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation(1-12), species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change(13,14). To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management(15,16) is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.