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Lag-one autocorrelation in short series: Estimation and hypotheses testing

Journal article published in 2010 by Rumen Manolov, Antonio Solanas, Vicenta Sierra
This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Abstract

In the first part of the study, nine estimators of the first-order autoregressive parameter are reviewed and a new estimator is proposed. The relationships and discrepancies between the estimators are discussed in order to achieve a clear differentiation. In the second part of the study, the precision in the estimation of autocorrelation is studied. The performance of the ten lag-one autocorrelation estimators is compared in terms of Mean Square Error (combining bias and variance) using data series generated by Monte Carlo simulation. The results show that there is not a single optimal estimator for all conditions, suggesting that the estimator ought to be chosen according to sample size and to the information available on the possible direction of the serial dependence. Additionally, the probability of labelling an actually existing autocorrelation as statistically significant is explored using Monte Carlo sampling. The power estimates obtained are quite similar among the tests associated with the different estimators. These estimates evidence the small probability of detecting autocorrelation in series with less than 20 measurement times. The present study focuses on autocorrelation estimators reviewing most of them and proposing a new one. Hypothesis testing is also explored and discussed as the statistical significance of the estimates may be of interest. These topics are relevant for methodological and behavioural sciences, since they have impact on the techniques used for assessing intervention effectiveness.