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Proceedings of the 21th ACM SIGKDD International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining - KDD '15

DOI: 10.1145/2783258.2783340

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The Child is Father of the Man

Proceedings article published in 2015 by Liangyue Li, Hanghang Tong ORCID
This paper was not found in any repository; the policy of its publisher is unknown or unclear.
This paper was not found in any repository; the policy of its publisher is unknown or unclear.

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Abstract

Understanding the dynamic mechanisms that drive the high-impact scientific work (e.g., research papers, patents) is a long-debated research topic and has many important implications, ranging from personal career development and recruitment search, to the jurisdiction of research resources. Recent advances in characterizing and modeling scientific success have made it possible to forecast the long-term impact of scientific work, where data mining techniques, supervised learning in particular, play an essential role. Despite much progress, several key algorithmic challenges in relation to predicting long-term scientific impact have largely remained open. In this paper, we propose a joint predictive model to forecast the long-term scientific impact at the early stage, which simultaneously addresses a number of these open challenges, including the scholarly feature design, the non-linearity, the domain-heterogeneity and dynamics. In particular, we formulate it as a regularized optimization problem and propose effective and scalable algorithms to solve it. We perform extensive empirical evaluations on large, real scholarly data sets to validate the effectiveness and the efficiency of our method. ; Comment: Correct some typos in our KDD paper