Abstract Context Glucose tolerance worsens after distal pancreatectomy (DP); however, the long-term incidence and factors affecting interindividual variation in this worsening are unclear. Objective To investigate the changes in diabetes-related traits before and after DP and to clarify the incidence of diabetes and its predictors. Methods Among 493 registered patients, 117 underwent DP. Among these, 56 patients without diabetes before surgery were included in the study. Glucose and endocrine function were prospectively assessed using a 75-g oral glucose tolerance test preoperatively, 1 month after DP, and every 6 months thereafter for up to 36 months. Pancreatic volumetry was performed using multidetector row computed tomography before and after surgery. Results Insulin secretion decreased and blood glucose levels worsened after DP. Residual pancreatic volume was significantly associated with the reserve capacity of insulin secretion but not with blood glucose levels or the development of diabetes. Among 56 patients, 33 developed diabetes mellitus. The cumulative incidence of diabetes at 36 months after DP was 74.1%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that impaired glucose tolerance as a preoperative factor as well as a decreased insulinogenic index and impaired glucose tolerance at 1 month postoperatively were identified as risk factors for diabetes following DP. Conclusion Impaired glucose tolerance and reduced early-phase insulin response to glucose are involved in the development of new-onset diabetes after DP; the latter is an additional factor in the development of diabetes and becomes apparent when pancreatic beta cell mass is reduced after DP.