Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

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SAGE Publications, Multiple Sclerosis Journal, 7(30), p. 843-846, 2024

DOI: 10.1177/13524585241244751

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Therapeutic lag: Is treatment effect delayed in progressive MS?

This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.

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Abstract

Background: Randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in progressive multiple sclerosis (MS) often revealed non-significant treatment effects on disability progression. Objectives: To investigate whether the failure to detect a significant benefit from treatment may be motivated by a delay in treatment effect, possibly related to baseline characteristics. Methods: We re-analyzed data from two RCTs testing interferon-beta and glatiramer-acetate versus placebo in progressive MS with no significant effect on EDSS progression. We first designed a time-dependent Cox model with no treatment effect up to time = t0, and constant hazard ratio (HR) after time = t0. We selected the best-fitting t0 from 0 (standard Cox model) to 2.5 years. Furthermore, we modeled the delay as a function of baseline EDSS and fitted the resulting Cox model to the merged dataset. Results: The time-dependent Cox model revealed a significant benefit of treatment delayed by t0 = 2.5 years for the SPECTRIMS study (HR = 0.65 (0.43–0.98), p = 0.041), and delayed by t0 = 2 years for the PROMISE study (HR = 0.65, (0.42–0.99), p = 0.044). In the merged dataset, the HR for the EDSS-dependent delayed effect was 0.68 (0.56, 0.82), p < 0.001. Conclusion: The assumption of a delayed treatment effect improved the fit to the data of the two examined RCTs, uncovering a significant, although shifted, benefit of treatment.