Published in

American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Research Letters, 9(51), 2024

DOI: 10.1029/2023gl106991

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20th‐Century Antarctic Sea Level Mitigation Driven by Uncertain East Antarctic Accumulation History

Journal article published in 2024 by Advik Eswaran ORCID, Olivia J. Truax ORCID, T. J. Fudge ORCID
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.

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Abstract

AbstractIncreasing snow accumulation over the Antarctic Ice Sheet may mitigate future sea level rise. However, current estimates of mitigation potential are poorly constrained due to limited records of past variability. We present an annually resolved reconstruction of Antarctic snow accumulation from 1801 to 2000 CE, employing a paleoclimate data assimilation methodology to integrate ice core records with a multi‐model ensemble of climate simulations. Our reconstruction correlates well with instrumental reanalysis, and we find that Antarctic accumulation rates increased over the 20th‐century, resulting in a modest amount (∼1 mm) of sea level mitigation. Mitigation is primarily driven by an accelerating trend since around 1970. Our results contrast with previous mitigation estimates of ∼10–12 mm; this discrepancy is due to poorly constrained baseline estimates of 19th‐century accumulation in East Antarctica. Our reconstruction suggests that the uncertainty of future sea level mitigation from increasing Antarctic accumulation has been underestimated.