BACKGROUND: Serum tumor markers (STM) may complement imaging and provide additional clinical information for patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). OBJECTIVE: To determine whether STMs can predict outcomes in patients with stable disease (SD) after initial treatment. METHODS: This single-center, prospective, observational trial enrolled 395 patients with stage III/IV treatment-naïve NSCLC; of which 263 patients were included in this analysis. Computed Tomography (CT) scans were performed and STMs measured before and after initial treatment (two cycles of chemotherapy and/or an immune checkpoint inhibitor or tyrosine kinase inhibitor); analyses were based on CT and STM measurements obtained at first CT performed after cycle 2 only PFS and OS were analyzed by Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox-proportional hazard models. RESULTS: When patients with SD (n = 100) were split into high- and low-risk groups based on CYFRA 21-1, CEA and CA 125 measurements using an optimized cut-off, a 4-fold increase risk of progression or death was estimated for high- vs low-risk SD patients (PFS, HR 4.17; OS, 3.99; both p < 0.0001). Outcomes were similar between patients with high-risk SD or progressive disease (n = 35) (OS, HR 1.17) and between patients with low-risk SD or partial response (n = 128) (PFS, HR 0.98; OS, 1.14). CONCLUSIONS: STMs can provide further guidance in patients with indeterminate CT responses by separating them into high- and low-risk groups for future PFS and OS events.