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National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 29(120), 2023

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2304862120

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Failing to replicate predicts citation declines in psychology

Journal article published in 2023 by Cory J. Clark ORCID, Paul Connor ORCID, Calvin Isch ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

With a sample of 228 psychology papers that failed to replicate, we tested whether the trajectory of citation patterns changes following the publication of a failure to replicate. Across models, we found consistent evidence that failing to replicate predicted lower future citations and that the size of this reduction increased over time. In a 14-y postpublication period, we estimated that the publication of a failed replication was associated with an average citation decline of 14% for original papers. These findings suggest that the publication of failed replications may contribute to a self-correcting science by decreasing scholars’ reliance on unreplicable original findings.