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American Astronomical Society, Astrophysical Journal, 1(947), p. 10, 2023

DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/acbdf4

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Deep Follow-up for Gravitational-wave Inference: A Case Study with GW151226

Journal article published in 2023 by Avi Vajpeyi ORCID, Rory Smith ORCID, Eric Thrane ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

Abstract New analyses of gravitational-wave events raise questions about the nature of some events. For example, LIGO–Virgo–KAGRA initially determined GW151226 to be a merger with a mass ratio q ≈ 0.5 and effective inspiral spin χ eff ≈ 0.2. However, recent works offer an alternative picture: GW151226 is a lower mass ratio event q ≈ 0.3 with slightly higher spin χ eff ≈ 0.3. This discrepancy has been challenging to resolve, as a wide range of differences are employed for each analysis. This work introduces a “deep follow-up” framework to efficiently compute the posterior odds between two different peaks in parameter space. In doing so, we aim to help resolve disputes about the true nature of gravitational-wave events associated with conflicting astrophysical interpretations. Our proposal is not a replacement for standard inference techniques; instead, our method provides a diagnostic tool to understand discrepancies between conflicting results. We demonstrate this method by studying three q–χ eff peaks proposed for GW151226. We find that the (q ∼ 0.5, χ eff ∼ 0.2) interpretation is only slightly preferred over the (q ∼ 0.3, χ eff ∼ 0.3) hypothesis with posterior odds of ∼1.7 ± 0.4, suggesting that neither of the two peaks can be ruled out. We discuss strategies to produce more reliable parameter estimation studies in gravitational-wave astronomy.