Published in

SAGE Publications, Canadian Journal of Kidney Health and Disease, (10), 2023

DOI: 10.1177/20543581231169608

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Variation in Kidney Transplant Referral Across Chronic Kidney Disease Programs in Ontario, Canada

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Background: Eligible patients with kidney failure should have equal access to kidney transplantation. Transplant referral is the first crucial step toward receiving a kidney transplant; however, studies suggest substantial variation in the rate of kidney transplant referral across regions. The province of Ontario, Canada, has a public, single-payer health care system with 27 regional chronic kidney disease (CKD) programs. The probability of being referred for kidney transplant may not be equal across CKD programs. Objective: To determine whether there is variability in kidney transplant referral rates across Ontario’s CKD programs. Design: Population-based cohort study using linked administrative health care databases from January 1, 2013, to November 1, 2016. Setting: Twenty-seven regional CKD programs in the province of Ontario, Canada. Patients: Patients approaching the need for dialysis (advanced CKD) and patients receiving maintenance dialysis (maximum follow-up: November 1, 2017). Measurements: Kidney transplant referral. Methods: We calculated the 1-year unadjusted cumulative probability of kidney transplant referral for Ontario’s 27 CKD programs using the complement of Kaplan-Meier estimator. We calculated standardized referral ratios (SRRs) for each CKD program, using expected referrals from a 2-staged Cox proportional hazards model, adjusting for patient characteristics in the first stage. Standardized referral ratios with a value less than 1 were below the provincial average (maximum possible follow-up of 4 years 10 months). In an additional analysis, we grouped CKD programs according to 5 geographic regions. Results: Among 8641 patients with advanced CKD, the 1-year cumulative probability of kidney transplant referral ranged from 0.9% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.2%-3.7%) to 21.0% (95% CI: 17.5%-25.2%) across the 27 CKD programs. The adjusted SRR ranged from 0.2 (95% CI: 0.1-0.4) to 4.2 (95% CI: 2.1-7.5). Among 6852 patients receiving maintenance dialysis, the 1-year cumulative probability of transplant referral ranged from 6.4% (95% CI: 4.0%-10.2%) to 34.5% (95% CI: 29.5%-40.1%) across CKD programs. The adjusted SRR ranged from 0.2 (95% CI: 0.1-0.3) to 1.8 (95% CI: 1.6-2.1). When we grouped CKD programs according to geographic region, we found that patients residing in Northern regions had a substantially lower 1-year cumulative probability of transplant referral. Limitations: Our cumulative probability estimates only captured referrals within the first year of advanced CKD or maintenance dialysis initiation. Conclusions: There is marked variability in the probability of kidney transplant referral across CKD programs operating in a publicly funded health care system.