RationaleLung volumes identify the “susceptible smokers” who progress to develop spirometric COPD. However, among susceptible smokers, development of spirometric COPD seems to be heterogeneous, suggesting the presence of different pathological mechanisms during early establishment of spirometric COPD. The objective of the present study was to determine the differential patterns of radiographic pathologies among susceptible smokers.MethodsWe categorised smokers with preserved spirometry (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage 0) in the Genetic Epidemiology of COPD (COPDGene) cohort based on tertiles (low, intermediate and high) of lung volumes (either total lung capacity (TLC), functional residual capacity FRC or FRC/TLC) at baseline visit. We then examined the differential patterns of change in spirometry and the associated prevalence of computed tomography measured pathologies of emphysema and airway disease with those categories of lung volumes.ResultsThe pattern of spirometric change differed when participants were categorised by TLCversusFRC/TLC: those in the high TLC tertile showed stable forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁), but enlarging forced vital capacity (FVC), while those in the high FRC/TLC tertile showed decline in both FEV₁and FVC. When participants from the high TLC and high FRC/TLC tertiles were partitioned into mutually exclusive groups, compared to those with high TLC, those with high FRC/TLC had lesser emphysema, but greater air trapping, more self-reported respiratory symptoms and exacerbation episodes and higher likelihood of progressing to more severe spirometric disease (GOLD stages 2–4versusGOLD stage 1).ConclusionsLung volumes identify distinct physiological and radiographic phenotypes in early disease among susceptible smokers and predict the rate of spirometric disease progression and the severity of symptoms in early COPD.