Published in
Nature Research, Nature Communications, 1(12), 2021
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23865-8
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Effect of specific non-pharmaceutical intervention policies on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in the counties of the United States
,
Angkana T. Huang,
Bernardo Garcia-Carreras,
William E. Hart,
Andrea Staid,
Matt D. T. Hitchings,
Elizabeth C. Lee,
Chanelle J. Howe,
Kyra H. Grantz,
Amy Wesolowksi,
Joseph Chadi Lemaitre,
Susan Rattigan,
Carlos Moreno,
Brooke A. Borgert,
Celeste Dale
and other authors.
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Abstract
AbstractNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) remain the only widely available tool for controlling the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. We estimated weekly values of the effective basic reproductive number (Reff) using a mechanistic metapopulation model and associated these with county-level characteristics and NPIs in the United States (US). Interventions that included school and leisure activities closure and nursing home visiting bans were all associated with a median Reff below 1 when combined with either stay at home orders (median Reff 0.97, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58–1.39) or face masks (median Reff 0.97, 95% CI 0.58–1.39). While direct causal effects of interventions remain unclear, our results suggest that relaxation of some NPIs will need to be counterbalanced by continuation and/or implementation of others.