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Evolution of the Parisian urban climate under a global changing climate

This paper is available in a repository.
This paper is available in a repository.

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Preprint: policy unknown
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Postprint: policy unknown
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Published version: policy unknown

Abstract

The impact of climate change on the regional-scale climate of the large Paris area at the end of the 21st century is analyzed by conducting long-term offline numerical integrations. Thanks to a land surface modeling system including a specific urban parameterization with a 1-km spatial resolution, the emphasis is put on the study of the interactions between local effects of global change and urban processes such as urban heat island (UHI). In winter, the temperature significantly increases in future climate of about +2.0 and +2.4°C for minimum and maximum daily temperatures, respectively, between 1971-2006 and 2072-2098. This trend is particularly marked in the most urbanized areas where the number of cold days (Tmin < -5°C) becomes null, as well as the number of ice days (Tmax < 0°C). In summer, the evolution of temperature is more important than in winter (+4.1 and +5.8°C for the minimum and maximum daily temperatures). Contrary to the expected results, the warming trend is more marked in rural areas than in urbanized areas because of the large soil drying of natural soils. As a result, a substantial decrease of the strong UHIs (greater than 2°C) is noted at nighttime, and numerous events with negative UHIs appear at daytime. It is also emphasized that the extremes in temperature are the most important in suburban areas where the effects of partial urbanization and soil dryness accumulate. Finally, the comparison of the heat and cool degree days (HDDs and CDDs) calculated in present and future climates indicates a 30% decrease of the needs in heating during winter, and inversely an increase in air-conditioning needs to maintain thermal comfort. The order of magnitudes show, however, that the increase in CDDs remains less significant than the decrease in HDDs, even if this strongly depends on the choice of the standard temperatures used for the calculation of the degree days.