Stockholm University Press, Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 1(66), p. 23188, 2014
DOI: 10.3402/tellusb.v66.23188
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Carbon emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (LUC) are quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model for the past and the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP). Wood harvesting and parallel abandonment and expansion of agricultural land in areas of shifting cultivation are explicitly simulated (gross land use change) based on the Land Use Harmonization (LUH) dataset and a proposed alternative method that relies on minimum input data and generically accounts for gross land use change. Cumulative global LUC emissions are 72 GtC by 1850 and 243 GtC by 2004 and 27 to 151 GtC for the next 95 years following the different RCP scenarios. The alternative method reprocudes results based on LUH data with full transition information within less than 0.1 GtC/yr over the last decades and bears potential for applications in combination with other land use scenarios. In the last decade, shifting cultivation and wood harvest within remaining forests and including slash each contributed 19% to the mean annual emissions of 1.2 GtC/yr. These factors, in combination with amplification effects under elevated CO2 , contribute substantially to future emissions from LUC in all RCPs.