Abstract This study aimed to evaluate the influence of the number of dentists in the neighborhood on the incidence of dental caries in the children permanent dentition. This cohort began in 2010 (T1) with a random sample of 639 children (1 to 5 years-old) followed for 7 years, in southern Brazil. The follow-up reassessment (T2) took place in 2017. Untreated dental caries was evaluated at T2 through the Decayed, Missing, and Filled surfaces index (DMF-S). The number of dentists in the neighborhood was obtained from the city’s official database and used as a contextual variable. Socioeconomic, demographic, and oral health variables at the individual level were evaluated at T1. A multilevel Poisson regression was performed to evaluate the influence of the predictor variables in the incidence of untreated dental caries. From 639 children at T1, 449 were reassessed at T2 (a 70.3% retention rate). The mean of decayed surfaces at T2 was 0.92 (SE 0.01). The greater the number of dentists in the neighborhoods where the children lived, the lower the incidence of dental caries. Children with low socioeconomic status, who have not routinely visited the dentist in the last 6 months, who presented a experience of dental caries, and whose parents perceived their oral health as fair/poor showed a higher incidence of surfaces with untreated dental caries. As conclusion, children who live in neighborhoods with fewer dentists have a higher incidence of untreated dental caries in permanent dentition.