AbstractBackground and ObjectiveContextual effects (e.g. patient expectations) may play a role in treatment effectiveness. This study aimed to estimate the magnitude of contextual effects for conservative, non‐pharmacological interventions for musculoskeletal pain conditions. A systematic review and meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that compared placebo conservative non‐pharmacological interventions to no treatment for musculoskeletal pain. The outcomes assessed included pain intensity, physical functioning, health‐related quality of life, global rating of change, depression, anxiety and sleep at immediate, short‐, medium‐ and/or long‐term follow‐up.Databases and Data TreatmentMEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Web of Science Core Collection, CENTRAL and SPORTDiscus were searched from inception to September 2021. Trial registry searches, backward and forward citation tracking and searches for prior systematic reviews were completed. The Cochrane risk of bias 2 tool was implemented.ResultsThe study included 64 RCTs (N = 4314) out of 8898 records. For pain intensity, a mean difference of (MD: −5.32, 95% confidence interval (CI): −7.20, −3.44, N = 57 studies with 74 outcomes, GRADE: very low) was estimated for placebo interventions. A small effect in favour of the placebo interventions for physical function was estimated (SMD: −0.22, 95% CI: −0.35, −0.09; N = 37 with 48 outcomes, GRADE: very low). Similar results were found for a broad range of patient‐reported outcomes. Meta‐regression analyses did not explain heterogeneity among analyses.ConclusionThe study found that the contextual effect of non‐pharmacological conservative interventions for musculoskeletal conditions is likely to be small. However, given the known effect sizes of recommended evidence‐based treatments for musculoskeletal conditions, it may still contribute an important component.SignificanceContextual effects of non‐pharmacological conservative interventions for musculoskeletal conditions are likely to be small for a broad range of patient‐reported outcomes (pain intensity, physical function, quality of life, global rating of change and depression). Contextual effects are unlikely, in isolation, to offer much clinical care. But these factors do have relevance in an overall treatment context as they provide almost 30% of the minimally clinically important difference.