The steps governing healing with or without fibrosis within the same microenvironment are unclear. After acute kidney injury (AKI), injured proximal tubular epithelial cells activate SOX9 for self-restoration. Using a multimodal approach for a head-to-head comparison of injury-induced SOX9 lineages, we identified a dynamic SOX9 switch in repairing epithelia. Lineages that regenerated epithelia silenced SOX9 and healed without fibrosis (SOX9 ^on-off ). By contrast, lineages with unrestored apicobasal polarity maintained SOX9 activity in sustained efforts to regenerate, which were identified as a SOX9 ^on-on Cadherin6 ^pos cell state. These reprogrammed cells generated substantial single-cell WNT activity to provoke a fibroproliferative response in adjacent fibroblasts, driving AKI to chronic kidney disease. Transplanted human kidneys displayed similar SOX9/CDH6/WNT2B responses. Thus, we have uncovered a sensor of epithelial repair status, the activity of which determines regeneration with or without fibrosis.