Abstract Normal sleepers may be at risk for insomnia during COVID-19. Identifying psychological factors and neural markers that predict their insomnia risk, as well as investigating possible courses of insomnia development, could lead to more precise targeted interventions for insomnia during similar public health emergencies. Insomnia severity index of 306 participants before and during COVID-19 were employed to determine the development of insomnia, while pre-COVID-19 psychometric and resting-state fMRI data were used to explore corresponding psychological and neural markers of insomnia development. Normal sleepers as a group reported a significant increase in insomnia symptoms after COVID-19 outbreak (F = 4.618, P = 0.0102, df = 2, 609.9). Depression was found to significantly contribute to worse insomnia (β = 0.066, P = 0.024). Subsequent analysis found that functional connectivity between the precentral gyrus and middle/inferior temporal gyrus mediated the association between pre-COVID-19 depression and insomnia symptoms during COVID-19. Cluster analysis identified that postoutbreak insomnia symptoms followed 3 courses (lessened, slightly worsened, and developed into mild insomnia), and pre-COVID-19 depression symptoms and functional connectivities predicted these courses. Timely identification and treatment of at-risk individuals may help avoid the development of insomnia in the face of future health-care emergencies, such as those arising from COVID-19 variants.