Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

Published in

MDPI, Vaccines, 3(11), p. 633, 2023

DOI: 10.3390/vaccines11030633

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Projection of COVID-19 Positive Cases Considering Hybrid Immunity: Case Study in Tokyo

Journal article published in 2023 by Sachiko Kodera ORCID, Akito Takada, Essam A. Rashed ORCID, Akimasa Hirata ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

Since the emergence of COVID-19, the forecasting of new daily positive cases and deaths has been one of the essential elements in policy setting and medical resource management worldwide. An essential factor in forecasting is the modeling of susceptible populations and vaccination effectiveness (VE) at the population level. Owing to the widespread viral transmission and wide vaccination campaign coverage, it becomes challenging to model the VE in an efficient and realistic manner, while also including hybrid immunity which is acquired through full vaccination combined with infection. Here, the VE model of hybrid immunity was developed based on an in vitro study and publicly available data. Computational replication of daily positive cases demonstrates a high consistency between the replicated and observed values when considering the effect of hybrid immunity. The estimated positive cases were relatively larger than the observed value without considering hybrid immunity. Replication of the daily positive cases and its comparison would provide useful information of immunity at the population level and thus serve as useful guidance for nationwide policy setting and vaccination strategies.