Abstract The Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) is a waveform lidar instrument on the International Space Station used to estimate aboveground biomass density (AGBD) in temperate and tropical forests. Algorithms to predict footprint AGBD from GEDI relative height (RH) metrics were developed from simulated waveforms with leaf-on (growing season) conditions. Leaf-off GEDI data with lower canopy cover are expected to have shorter RH metrics, and are therefore excluded from GEDI’s gridded AGBD products. However, the effects of leaf phenology on RH metric heights, and implications for GEDI footprint AGBD models that can include multiple nonlinear RH predictors, have not been quantified. Here, we test the sensitivity of GEDI data and AGBD predictions to leaf phenology. We simulated GEDI data using high-density drone lidar collected in a temperate mountain forest in the Czech Republic under leaf-off and leaf-on conditions, 51 d apart. We compared simulated GEDI RH metrics and footprint-level AGBD predictions from GEDI Level 4 A models from leaf-off and leaf-on datasets. Mean canopy cover increased by 31% from leaf-off to leaf-on conditions, from 57% to 88%. RH metrics < RH50 were more sensitive to changes in leaf phenology than RH metrics ⩾ RH50. Candidate AGBD models for the deciduous-broadleaf-trees prediction stratum in Europe that were trained using leaf-on measurements exhibited a systematic prediction difference of 0.6%–19% when applied to leaf-off data, as compared to leaf-on predictions. Models with the least systematic prediction difference contained only the highest RH metrics, or contained multiple predictor terms that contained both positive and negative coefficients, such that the difference from systematically shorter leaf-off RH metrics was partially offset among the multiple terms. These results suggest that, with consideration of model choice, leaf-off GEDI data can be suitable for AGBD prediction, which could increase data availability and reduce sampling error in some forests.