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Oxford University Press, American Journal of Epidemiology, 2(191), p. 255-270, 2021

DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwab150

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Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Latent Tuberculosis Screening and Treatment Strategies in Recent Migrants to a Low-Incidence Setting

This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.

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Abstract

Abstract Many tuberculosis (TB) cases in low-incidence settings are attributed to reactivation of latent TB infection (LTBI) acquired overseas. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of community-based LTBI screening and treatment strategies in recent migrants to a low-incidence setting (Australia). A decision-analytical Markov model was developed that cycled 1 migrant cohort (≥11-year-olds) annually over a lifetime from 2020. Postmigration/onshore and offshore (screening during visa application) strategies were compared with existing policy (chest x-ray during visa application). Outcomes included TB cases averted and discounted cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained from a health-sector perspective. Most recent migrants are young adults and cost-effectiveness is limited by their relatively low LTBI prevalence, low TB mortality risks, and high emigration probability. Onshore strategies cost at least $203,188 (Australian) per QALY gained, preventing approximately 2.3%–7.0% of TB cases in the cohort. Offshore strategies (screening costs incurred by migrants) cost at least $13,907 per QALY gained, preventing 5.5%–16.9% of cases. Findings were most sensitive to the LTBI treatment quality-of-life decrement (further to severe adverse events); with a minimal decrement, all strategies caused more ill health than they prevented. Additional LTBI strategies in recent migrants could only marginally contribute to TB elimination and are unlikely to be cost-effective unless screening costs are borne by migrants and potential LTBI treatment quality-of-life decrements are ignored.