Published in

MDPI, Remote Sensing, 3(14), p. 698, 2022

DOI: 10.3390/rs14030698

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Deep Learning for Vegetation Health Forecasting: A Case Study in Kenya

Journal article published in 2022 by Thomas Lees ORCID, Gabriel Tseng, Clement Atzberger ORCID, Steven Reece, Simon Dadson
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

East Africa has experienced a number of devastating droughts in recent decades, including the 2010/2011 drought. The National Drought Management Authority in Kenya relies on real-time information from MODIS satellites to monitor and respond to emerging drought conditions in the arid and semi-arid lands of Kenya. Providing accurate and timely information on vegetation conditions and health—and its probable near-term future evolution—is essential for minimising the risk of drought conditions evolving into disasters as the country’s herders directly rely on the conditions of grasslands. Methods from the field of machine learning are increasingly being used in hydrology, meteorology, and climatology. One particular method that has shown promise for rainfall-runoff modelling is the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network. In this study, we seek to test two LSTM architectures for vegetation health forecasting. We find that these models provide sufficiently accurate forecasts to be useful for drought monitoring and forecasting purposes, showing competitive performances with lower resolution ensemble methods and improved performances over a shallow neural network and a persistence baseline.