Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

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Wiley, Diabetes/Metabolism Research and Reviews, 5(38), 2022

DOI: 10.1002/dmrr.3526

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Development of a clinical risk score to predict death in patients with COVID‐19

This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.

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Abstract

AbstractObjectiveTo build a clinical risk score to aid risk stratification among hospitalised COVID‐19 patients.MethodsThe score was built using data of 417 consecutive COVID‐19 in patients from Kuwait. Risk factors for COVID‐19 mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regressions and assigned weighted points proportional to their beta coefficient values. A final score was obtained for each patient and tested against death to calculate an Receiver‐operating characteristic curve. Youden's index was used to determine the cut‐off value for death prediction risk. The score was internally validated using another COVID‐19 Kuwaiti‐patient cohort of 923 patients. External validation was carried out using 178 patients from the Italian CoViDiab cohort.ResultsDeceased COVID‐19 patients more likely showed glucose levels of 7.0–11.1 mmol/L (34.4%, p < 0.0001) or >11.1 mmol/L (44.3%, p < 0.0001), and comorbidities such as diabetes and hypertension compared to those who survived (39.3% vs. 20.4% [p = 0.0027] and 45.9% vs. 26.6% [p = 0.0036], respectively). The risk factors for in‐hospital mortality in the final model were gender, nationality, asthma, and glucose categories (<5.0, 5.5–6.9, 7.0–11.1, or 11.1 > mmol/L). A score of ≥5.5 points predicted death with 75% sensitivity and 86.3% specificity (area under the curve (AUC) 0.901). Internal validation resulted in an AUC of 0.826, and external validation showed an AUC of 0.687.ConclusionThis clinical risk score was built with easy‐to‐collect data and had good probability of predicting in‐hospital death among COVID‐19 patients.