BackgroundAlthough most patients with cancer prefer to know their prognosis, prognostic communication between oncologists and patients is often insufficient. Targeted therapies for lung cancer improve survival yet are not curative and produce variable responses. This study sought to describe how oncologists communicate about prognosis with patients receiving targeted therapies for lung cancer.MethodsThis qualitative study included 39 patients with advanced lung cancer with targetable mutations, 14 caregivers, and 10 oncologists. Semistructured interviews with patients and caregivers and focus groups or interviews with oncologists were conducted to explore their experiences with prognostic communication. One oncology follow‐up visit was audio‐recorded per patient. A framework approach was used to analyze interview transcripts, and a content analysis of patient–oncologist dialogue was conducted. Themes were identified within each source and then integrated across sources to create a multidimensional description of prognostic communication.ResultsSix themes in prognostic communication were identified: Patients with targetable mutations develop a distinct identity in the lung cancer community that affects their information‐seeking and self‐advocacy; oncologists set high expectations for targeted therapy; the uncertain availability of new therapies complicates prognostic discussions; patients and caregivers have variable information preferences; patients raise questions about progression by asking about physical symptoms or scan results; and patients' expectations of targeted therapy influence their medical decision‐making.ConclusionsOptimistic patient–oncologist communication shapes the expectations of patients receiving targeted therapy for lung cancer and affects their decision‐making. Further research and clinical guidance are needed to help oncologists to communicate uncertain outcomes effectively.