BACKGROUND: The short-term incidence of ischemic stroke after a transient ischemic attack (TIA) is high. However, data on the long-term incidence are not well known but are needed to guide preventive strategies. METHODS: Patients with first-time TIA (index date) in the Danish Stroke Registry (January 2014–December 2020) were included and matched 1:4 with individuals from the background population and 1:1 with patients with a first-time ischemic stroke on the basis of age, sex, and calendar year. The incidences of ischemic stroke and mortality from index date were estimated by Aalen-Johansen and Kaplan-Meier estimators, respectively, and compared between groups using multivariable Cox regression. RESULTS: We included 21 500 patients with TIA, 86 000 patients from the background population, and 21 500 patients with ischemic stroke (median age, 70.8 years [25th–75th percentile, 60.8–78.7]; 53.1% males). Patients with TIA had more comorbidities than the background population, yet less than the control stroke population. The 5-year incidence of ischemic stroke after TIA (6.1% [95% CI, 5.7–6.5]) was higher than the background population (1.5% [95% CI, 1.4–1.6], P <0.01; hazard ratio, 5.14 [95% CI, 4.65–5.69]) but lower than the control stroke population (8.9% [95% CI, 8.4–9.4], P <0.01; hazard ratio, 0.58 [95% CI, 0.53–0.64]). The 5-year mortality for patients with TIA (18.6% [95% CI, 17.9–19.3]) was higher than the background population (14.8% [95% CI, 14.5–15.1], P <0.01; hazard ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.20–1.32]) but lower than the control stroke population (30.1% [95% CI, 29.3–30.9], P <0.01; hazard ratio, 0.41 [95% CI, 0.39–0.44]). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with first-time TIA had an ischemic stroke incidence of 6.1% during the 5-year follow-up period. After adjustment for relevant comorbidities, this incidence was approximately 5-fold higher than what was found for controls in the background population and 40% lower than for patients with recurrent ischemic stroke.