Dissemin is shutting down on January 1st, 2025

Published in

American Geophysical Union, Geophysical Research Letters, 10(49), 2022

DOI: 10.1029/2022gl097885

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Variability of ENSO Forecast Skill in 2‐Year Global Reforecasts Over the 20th Century

This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.

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Preprint: archiving allowed
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Postprint: archiving allowed
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Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

AbstractIn order to explore temporal changes of predictability of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a novel set of global biennial climate reforecasts for the historical period 1901–2010 has been generated using a modern initialized coupled forecasting system. We find distinct periods of enhanced long‐range skill at the beginning and at the end of the twentieth century, and an extended multi‐decadal epoch of reduced skill during the 1930s–1950s. Once the forecast skill extends beyond the first spring barrier, the predictability limit is much enhanced and our results provide support for the feasibility of skillful ENSO forecasts up to 18 months. Changes in the mean state, variability (amplitude), persistence, seasonal cycle and predictability suggest that multi‐decadal variations in the dynamical characteristics of ENSO rather than the data coverage and quality of the observations have primarily driven the reported non‐monotonic skill modulations.