AbstractThe incidence of keratinocyte cancer (basal cell and squamous cell carcinomas of the skin) is 17-fold lower in Singapore than the UK^1–3, despite Singapore receiving 2–3 times more ultraviolet (UV) radiation^4,5. Aging skin contains somatic mutant clones from which such cancers develop^6,7. We hypothesized that differences in keratinocyte cancer incidence may be reflected in the normal skin mutational landscape. Here we show that, compared to Singapore, aging facial skin from populations in the UK has a fourfold greater mutational burden, a predominant UV mutational signature, increased copy number aberrations and increased mutant TP53 selection. These features are shared by keratinocyte cancers from high-incidence and low-incidence populations^8–13. In Singaporean skin, most mutations result from cell-intrinsic processes; mutant NOTCH1 and NOTCH2 are more strongly selected than in the UK. Aging skin in a high-incidence country has multiple features convergent with cancer that are not found in a low-risk country. These differences may reflect germline variation in UV-protective genes.