Published in

MDPI, GeoHazards, 2(3), p. 199-226, 2022

DOI: 10.3390/geohazards3020011

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Earthquake Nowcasting with Deep Learning

Journal article published in 2022 by Geoffrey Charles Fox ORCID, John B. Rundle, Andrea Donnellan, Bo Feng
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

We review previous approaches to nowcasting earthquakes and introduce new approaches based on deep learning using three distinct models based on recurrent neural networks and transformers. We discuss different choices for observables and measures presenting promising initial results for a region of Southern California from 1950–2020. Earthquake activity is predicted as a function of 0.1-degree spatial bins for time periods varying from two weeks to four years. The overall quality is measured by the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency comparing the deviation of nowcast and observation with the variance over time in each spatial region. The software is available as open source together with the preprocessed data from the USGS.