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American Heart Association, Circulation: Genomic and Precision Medicine, 6(14), 2021

DOI: 10.1161/circgen.121.003452

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Polygenic Risk Score for Coronary Artery Disease Improves the Prediction of Early-Onset Myocardial Infarction and Mortality in Men

This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.

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Abstract

Background: Several risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) have been described, some of which are genetically determined. The use of a polygenic risk score (PRS) could improve CAD risk assessment, but predictive accuracy according to age and sex is not well established. Methods: A PRS CAD including the weighted effects of >1.14 million single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with CAD was calculated in UK Biobank (n=408 422), using LDpred. Cox regressions were performed, stratified by age quartiles and sex, for incident myocardial infarction (MI) and mortality, with a median follow-up of 11.0 years. Improvement in risk prediction of MI was assessed by comparing PRS CAD to the pooled cohort equation with categorical net reclassification index using a 2% threshold (NRI 0.02 ) and continuous NRI (NRI >0 ). Results: From 7746 incident MI cases and 393 725 controls, hazard ratio for MI reached 1.53 (95% CI, 1.49–1.56; P =2.69×10 −296 ) per SD increase of PRS CAD . PRS CAD was significantly associated with MI in both sexes, with a stronger association in men (interaction P =0.002), particularly in those aged between 40 and 51 years (hazard ratio, 2.00 [95% CI, 1.86–2.16], P =1.93×10 −72 ). This group showed the highest reclassification improvement, mainly driven by the up-classification of cases (NRI 0.02 , 0.199 [95% CI, 0.157–0.248] and NRI >0 , 0.602 [95% CI, 0.525–0.683]). From 23 982 deaths, hazard ratio for mortality was 1.08 (95% CI, 1.06–1.09; P =5.46×10 −30 ) per SD increase of PRS CAD , with a stronger association in men (interaction P =1.60×10 −6 ). Conclusions: Our PRS CAD predicts MI incidence and all-cause mortality, especially in men aged between 40 and 51 years. PRS could optimize the identification and management of individuals at risk for CAD.