Abstract We applied two propensity score-based analyses to simultaneously compare three treatment modalities—stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT), lobectomy, or sublobar resection (SLR)—for stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), with the aim of clarifying the average treatment effect (ATE) and formulating a risk-adapted approach to treatment selection. A retrospective review of 823 patients aged ≥65 years who underwent SBRT, lobectomy, or SLR for stage I NSCLC was conducted. The following two analyses using machine learning-based propensity scores were performed: (i) propensity score weighting (PSW) to assess the ATE in the entire cohort, and (ii) propensity score subclassification (PSS) to evaluate treatment effects of subgroups. PSW showed no significant difference in the 5-year overall survival (OS) between SBRT and SLR (60.0% vs 61.2%; P = 0.70) and significant difference between SBRT and lobectomy (60.0% vs 77.6%; P = 0.026). Local (LR) and distant recurrence (DR) rates were significantly lower in lobectomy than in SBRT, whereas there was no significant difference between SBRT and SLR. PSS identified four subgroups with different patient characteristics: lobectomy-oriented (5-year cumulative incidences of non-lung cancer death, 7.5%), SLR-oriented (14.2%), SBRT-oriented (23.8%) and treatment-neutral subgroups (16.1%). Each subgroup showed different survival trends regarding the three treatments. The ATE of SBRT was not significantly different from that of SLR, but it was inferior to lobectomy. Four subgroups with different risks of non-lung cancer death and different survival trends for each treatment were identified. These would help decision-making for patients with stage I NSCLC.