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Springer, Aging Clinical and Experimental Research, 9(34), p. 1997-2004, 2022

DOI: 10.1007/s40520-022-02129-5

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Comorbidity and Osteoporotic Fracture: Approach Through Predictive Modeling Techniques Using the OSTEOMED Registry

Journal article published in 2022 by María Begoña Coco Martín, María Begoña Coco Martín, Luis Leal Vega ORCID, Luis Leal Vega, José Antonio Blázquez Cabrera, José Antonio Blázquez Cabrera, Amalia Navarro, María Jesús Moro, Francisca Arranz García, Francisca Arranz García, María José Amérigo, Manuel Sosa Henríquez, Manuel Sosa Henríquez, María Ángeles Vázquez, María José Montoya and other authors.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Abstract Purpose To examine the response to anti-osteoporotic treatment, considered as incident fragility fractures after a minimum follow-up of 1 year, according to sex, age, and number of comorbidities of the patients. Methods For this retrospective observational study, data from baseline and follow-up visits on the number of comorbidities, prescribed anti-osteoporotic treatment and vertebral, humerus or hip fractures in 993 patients from the OSTEOMED registry were analyzed using logistic regression and an artificial network model. Results Logistic regression showed that the probability of reducing fractures for each anti-osteoporotic treatment considered was independent of sex, age, and the number of comorbidities, increasing significantly only in males taking vitamin D (OR = 7.918), patients without comorbidities taking vitamin D (OR = 4.197) and patients with ≥ 3 comorbidities taking calcium (OR = 9.412). Logistic regression correctly classified 96% of patients (Hosmer–Lemeshow = 0.492) compared with the artificial neural network model, which correctly classified 95% of patients (AUC = 0.6). Conclusion In general, sex, age and the number of comorbidities did not influence the likelihood that a given anti-osteoporotic treatment improved the risk of incident fragility fractures after 1 year, but this appeared to increase when patients had been treated with risedronate, strontium or teriparatide. The two models used classified patients similarly, but predicted differently in terms of the probability of improvement, with logistic regression being the better fit.