We analyzed 171 patients with asymptomatic IgM monoclonal gammopathies (64 with IgM monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance—MGUS and 107 with smoldering Waldenström macroglobulinemia - SWM) who had a bone marrow (BM) evaluation performed at diagnosis. Abnormal free-light chain ratio (53% vs. 31%) and MYD88 mutation prevalence (66% vs. 30%) were higher in patients with SWM. No other differences were found among groups. With a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 14 patients progressed to Waldenström macroglobulinemia, 1 to amyloidosis, and 28 died without progression. The MYD88 mutation was found in 53% of patients (available in 160 patients). Multivariate analysis showed that immunoparesis (subhazard ratio—SHR 10.2, 95% confidence interval—CI: 4.2–24.8; p < 0.001) and BM lymphoplasmacytic infiltration ≥ 20% (SHR: 6, 95% CI: 1.6–22.1; p = 0.007) were associated with higher risk of progression. We developed a risk model based on these two risk factors. In the absence of both variables, an ultra-low risk group was identified (SHR 0.1, 95% CI 0.02–0.5; p = 0.004), with 3% and 6% of cumulative incidence of progression at 10 and 20 years, respectively. Bootstrap analysis confirmed the reproducibility of these results. This study finds immunoparesis and BM infiltration as biomarkers of progression as well as a low-risk group of progression in asymptomatic IgM monoclonal gammopathies.