We show that the interaction between exercise bioenergetics and real-time pacing strategy predicts track distance running performance. Critical speed (CS) and the finite energy expended above CS (D´) can characterize an athlete’s capabilities prior to the race start, but the pacing strategy that optimizes D´ utilization ultimately impacts whether a runner is in contention to win and whether a runner will have a fast final 400 m. Accordingly, D´ balance predicts final race finishing order.