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Published in

National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 21(118), 2021

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2024192118

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Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point

Journal article published in 2021 by Niklas Boers ORCID, Martin Rypdal ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Significance It has been suggested that, in response to anthropogenic global warming, the Greenland Ice Sheet may reach a tipping point beyond which its current configuration would become unstable. A crucial nonlinear mechanism for the existence of this tipping point is the positive melt-elevation feedback: Melting reduces ice sheet height, exposing the ice sheet surface to warmer temperatures, which further accelerates melting. We reveal early-warning signals for a forthcoming critical transition from ice-core-derived height reconstructions and infer that the western Greenland Ice Sheet has been losing stability in response to rising temperatures. We show that the melt-elevation feedback is likely to be responsible for the observed destabilization. Our results suggest substantially enhanced melting in the near future.