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Public Library of Science, PLoS ONE, 2(16), p. e0246715, 2021

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0246715

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Evaluating the effect of Chinese control measures on COVID-19 via temporal reproduction number estimation

Journal article published in 2021 by Duanbing Chen, Tao Zhou ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Control measures are necessary to contain the spread of serious infectious diseases such as COVID-19, especially in its early stage. We propose to use temporal reproduction number an extension of effective reproduction number, to evaluate the efficacy of control measures, and establish a Monte-Carlo method to estimate the temporal reproduction number without complete information about symptom onsets. The province-level analysis indicates that the effective reproduction numbers of the majority of provinces in mainland China got down to < 1 just by one week from the setting of control measures, and the temporal reproduction number of the week [15 Feb, 21 Feb] is only about 0.18. It is therefore likely that Chinese control measures on COVID-19 are effective and efficient, though more research needs to be performed.