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National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 9(118), 2021

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2012008118

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The origin and early spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe

Journal article published in 2021 by Sarah A. Nadeau ORCID, Timothy G. Vaughan ORCID, Jérémie Scire ORCID, Jana S. Huisman ORCID, Tanja Stadler ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Significance We estimate the origin and spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe prior to spring 2020 border closures based on viral genome sequences using a phylodynamic model with geographic structure. We confirm that the predominant European outbreak most likely started in Italy and spread from there. This outbreak was probably seeded by a transmission event in either Hubei, China or Germany. In particular, we find that before the first border closures in Europe, the rate of new cases occurring from within-country transmission was within or exceeded the estimated bounds on the rate of new migration cases.