World Scientific Publishing, New Mathematics and Natural Computation, 03(16), p. 645-655, 2020
DOI: 10.1142/s1793005720500398
Full text: Unavailable
Housing price time series is worth studying as it is closely related to the well-being of society. In the Hong Kong housing market from 1992 to 2010, signs of quasi-periodicity in housing price and transaction volume can be observed. We find that there is an overall periodicity of approximately 30 months in housing price changes and a strong lead–lag relationship between housing price and transaction volume. Analysis of the cross-covariance of the housing price, transaction volume and prime lending rate reveals that this quasi-periodicity is potentially driven by prime lending rates. Incorporation of quasi-periodicity into the kernel of Gaussian processes further enables us to construct a predictive model of the Hong Kong housing price trends that outperforms other traditional kernel functions.