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Published in

World Scientific Publishing, New Mathematics and Natural Computation, 03(16), p. 645-655, 2020

DOI: 10.1142/s1793005720500398

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Intrinsic Quasi-Periodicity in Hong Kong Housing Price and Its Prediction

This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.

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Abstract

Housing price time series is worth studying as it is closely related to the well-being of society. In the Hong Kong housing market from 1992 to 2010, signs of quasi-periodicity in housing price and transaction volume can be observed. We find that there is an overall periodicity of approximately 30 months in housing price changes and a strong lead–lag relationship between housing price and transaction volume. Analysis of the cross-covariance of the housing price, transaction volume and prime lending rate reveals that this quasi-periodicity is potentially driven by prime lending rates. Incorporation of quasi-periodicity into the kernel of Gaussian processes further enables us to construct a predictive model of the Hong Kong housing price trends that outperforms other traditional kernel functions.