Published in

National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 47(117), p. 29748-29758, 2020

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2008256117

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Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Red circle
Preprint: archiving forbidden
Green circle
Postprint: archiving allowed
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
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Abstract

Significance Nuclear conflict poses the chilling prospect of triggering abrupt global cooling, and consequently, severely reduced crop production. However, the impacts on marine fisheries are unknown. If agricultural yields fall on land, could we turn to the sea instead? Here, we show that agricultural losses could not be offset by the world’s fisheries, especially given widespread overfishing. Cold temperatures and reduced sunlight would decrease the growth of fish biomass, at worst as much as under unmitigated climate change. Although intensified postwar fishing could yield a small catch increase, dramatic declines would ensue due to overharvesting. However, effective prewar fisheries management would create a substantial buffer of fish in the ocean, greatly increasing the oceans’ potential contribution during a global food emergency.