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American Association for Cancer Research, Clinical Cancer Research, 23(26), p. 6141-6148, 2020

DOI: 10.1158/1078-0432.ccr-20-2793

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A prognostic model based on PAM50 and clinical variables (PAM50MET) for metastatic hormone-receptor-positive HER2-negative breast cancer

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Abstract Purpose: Predicting prognosis in HR+/HER2− metastatic breast cancer (MBC) might be clinically useful; however, no validated prognostic biomarkers exist in this setting to date. Patients and Methods: In phase III, EGF30008 trial, 484 patients with HER2− MBC who received letrozole and placebo or lapatinib were selected. PAM50 data, ECOG performance status, visceral disease, number of metastasis, biopsy type, and age were evaluated. A progression-free survival (PFS) Cox model was evaluated. The final model (PAM50MET) with a prespecified cutoff was validated in patients (n = 261) with HR+/HER2− advanced breast cancer (aBC) from BOLERO-2 (phase III trial that evaluated exemestane and placebo or everolimus). Results: In EGF30008, prognostic models with PAM50 plus clinical variables yielded higher C-index values versus models with only PAM50 or clinical variables. The PAM50MET model combined 21 variables: 2 PAM50 subtypes, basal signature, 14 genes, and 4 clinical variables. In EGF30008, the optimized cutoff was associated with PFS [HR = 0.37; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.29–0.47; P < 0.0001] and overall survival (OS; HR = 0.37; 95% CI, 0.27–0.51; P < 0.0001). The median (months; 95% CI) PFS and OS were 22.24 (19.0–24.9) and not reached in PAM50MET-low versus 9.13 (8.15–11.0) and 33.0 (28.0–40.0) in PAM50MET-high groups, respectively. In BOLERO-2, the PAM50MET-low was associated with better PFS (HR = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.53–0.96; P = 0.028) and OS (HR = 0.51; 95% CI, 0.35–0.69; P < 0.0001). The median (months) (95% CI) PFS and OS were 6.93 (5.57–11.0) and 36.9 (33.4–NA) in PAM50MET-low versus 5.23 (4.2–6.8) and 23.5 (20.2–28.3) in PAM50MET-high groups, respectively. Conclusions: PAM50MET is prognostic in HR+/HER2− MBC, and further evaluation might help identify candidates for endocrine therapy only or novel therapies.