AbstractCross-sectional studies have indicated potential for positron emission tomography (PET) in imaging tau pathology in Alzheimer’s disease (AD); however, its prognostic utility remains unproven. In a longitudinal, multi-modal, prognostic study of cognitive decline, 20 patients with a clinical biomarker-based diagnosis in the AD spectrum (mild cognitive impairment or dementia and a positive amyloid-beta PET scan) were recruited from the Cognitive Clinic at Karolinska University Hospital. The participants underwent baseline neuropsychological assessment, PET imaging with [¹⁸F]THK5317, [¹¹C]PIB and [¹⁸F]FDG, magnetic resonance imaging, and in a subgroup cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) sampling, with clinical follow-up after a median 48 months (interquartile range = 32:56). In total, 11 patients declined cognitively over time, while 9 remained cognitively stable. The accuracy of baseline [¹⁸F]THK5317 binding in temporal areas was excellent at predicting future cognitive decline (area under the receiver operating curve 0.84–1.00) and the biomarker levels were strongly associated with the rate of cognitive decline (β estimate −33.67 to −31.02, p < 0.05). The predictive accuracy of the other baseline biomarkers was poor (area under the receiver operating curve 0.58–0.77) and their levels were not associated with the rate of cognitive decline (β estimate −4.64 to 15.78, p > 0.05). Baseline [¹⁸F]THK5317 binding and CSF tau levels were more strongly associated with the MMSE score at follow-up than at baseline (p < 0.05). These findings support a temporal dissociation between tau deposition and cognitive impairment, and suggest that [¹⁸F]THK5317 predicts future cognitive decline better than other biomarkers. The use of imaging markers for tau pathology could prove useful for clinical prognostic assessment and screening before inclusion in relevant clinical trials.