Aims: To investigate the predictive capacity of early post-treatment diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for recurrence or tumor progression in patients with no tumor residue after chemo-radiotherapy (CRT) for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma, and, to assess the predictive capacity of pre-treatment diffusion-weighted MRI for persistent tumor residue post-CRT. Materials and Method: A single center cohort study was performed in one French hospital. All patients with squamous cell carcinoma receiving CRT (no surgical indication) were included. Two diffusion-weighted MRI were performed: one within 8 days before CRT and one 3 months after completing CRT with determination of median tumor apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC). Main outcome: The primary endpoint was progression-free survival. Results: 59 patients were included prior to CRT and 46 (78.0%) completed CRT. A post-CRT tumor residue was found in 19/46 (41.3%) patients. In univariate analysis, initial ADC was significantly lower in patients with residue post CRT (0.56 ± 0.11 versus 0.79 ± 0.13; p < 0.001). When initial ADC was dichotomized at the median, initial ADC lower than 0.7 was significantly more frequent in patients with residue post CRT (73.7% versus 11.1%, p < 0.0001). In multivariate analysis, only initial ADC lower than 0.7 was significantly associated with tumor residue (OR = 22.6; IC [4.9–103.6], p < 0.0001). Among 26 patients without tumor residue after CRT and followed up until 12 months, 6 (23.1%) presented recurrence or progression. Only univariate analysis was performed due to a small number of events. The only factor significantly associated with disease progression or early recurrence was the delta ADC (p = 0.0009). When ADC variation was dichotomized at the median, patients with ADC variation greater than 0.7 had time of disease-free survival significantly longer than patients with ADC variation lower than 0.7 (377.5 [286–402] days versus 253 [198–370], p < 0.0001). Conclusion and relevance: Diffusion-weighted MRI could be a technique that enables differentiation of patients with high potential for early recurrence for whom intensive post-CRT monitoring is mandatory. Prospective studies with more inclusions would be necessary to validate our results.