Published in

Cambridge University Press, Annals of Actuarial Science, 1(15), p. 40-56, 2020

DOI: 10.1017/s1748499520000135

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Healthy life expectancy in China: Modelling and implications for public and private insurance

Journal article published in 2020 by Han Li, Katja Hanewald ORCID, Shang Wu
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.
This paper was not found in any repository, but could be made available legally by the author.

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Abstract

AbstractAlready home to 23% of the global elderly population, China will experience further demographic change in the coming decades. To address the consequences of population ageing, the Chinese government is implementing major social insurance reforms and promotes the development of private insurance markets. We aim to inform these initiatives by developing a new method to project healthy life expectancy (HLE) in different regions. HLE is an important population health measure which is increasingly used in the actuarial literature. Our new approach relies on publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease Study for life expectancy and HLE for 139 countries. We use the model to estimate HLE at birth in 2015 for 31 province-level regions in China for both males and females. We discuss the implications of our results for planned increases in the retirement age in China and for long-term care insurance pricing.