Published in

European Geosciences Union, Geoscientific Model Development, 4(13), p. 2095-2107, 2020

DOI: 10.5194/gmd-13-2095-2020

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Bayesian spatio-temporal inference of trace gas emissions using an integrated nested Laplacian approximation and Gaussian Markov random fields

This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

Abstract. We present a method to infer spatially and spatio-temporally correlated emissions of greenhouse gases from atmospheric measurements and a chemical transport model. The method allows fast computation of spatial emissions using a hierarchical Bayesian framework as an alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms. The spatial emissions follow a Gaussian process with a Matérn correlation structure which can be represented by a Gaussian Markov random field through a stochastic partial differential equation approach. The inference is based on an integrated nested Laplacian approximation (INLA) for hierarchical models with Gaussian latent fields. Combining an autoregressive temporal correlation and the Matérn field provides a full spatio-temporal correlation structure. We first demonstrate the method on a synthetic data example and follow this using a well-studied test case of inferring UK methane emissions from tall tower measurements of atmospheric mole fraction. Results from these two test cases show that this method can accurately estimate regional greenhouse gas emissions, accounting for spatio-temporal uncertainties that have traditionally been neglected in atmospheric inverse modelling.