Abstract Mafic magmatism of the rifting Taupo Volcanic Zone (TVZ) of the North Island, New Zealand, is volumetrically minor, but is thought to tap the material that provides the heat source for voluminous rhyolite production through partial melting of the crust, which ultimately results in very large volume explosive eruptions. We have studied the major and trace element chemistry of 14 mafic samples from across the entire TVZ, and the U isotopic composition of whole-rocks, groundmasses and separates of mafic mineral phases from a selection of nine samples (with the remaining five too sparsely phyric for mineral separation). Some minerals yield significant 234U enrichments despite groundmass and whole-rock close to 238U–234U secular equilibrium, pointing to uptake of variably hydrothermally altered antecrystic minerals prior to the eruption of originally sparsely phyric to aphyric mafic magmas. However, incompatible trace element patterns indicate that there are three chemically distinct groups of samples, and that samples may be used to derive primary melt compositions. We employ the latest version of the Arc Basalt Simulator (ABS5) to forward model these compositions, deriving mantle source parameters including mantle fertility, slab liquid flux, mantle volatile content, degree of melting, and P–T conditions of melt segregation. We show that mafic rocks erupted in areas of old, now inactive calderas constitute low-degree, deep melts, whereas those in areas of active caldera-volcanism are high-degree partial melts segregated from a less depleted source at an intermediate depth. Finally, high-Mg basaltic andesites erupted in the SW and NE of the TVZ point to a fertile, shallow mantle source. Our data are consistent with a petrogenetic model in which mantle melting is dominated by decompression, rather than fluid fluxing, and progresses from shallow to deeper levels with time. Melt volumes initially increase to a tipping point, at which large-scale crustal melting and caldera volcanism become prominent, and then decrease owing to progressive depletion of the mantle wedge by melting, resulting in the dearth of heat provided and eventual cessation of very large volume rhyolitic volcanism. ABS5 modelling therefore supports the notion of a direct link between the chemistry of recently erupted mafic magmas and the long-term activity and evolution of rhyolitic volcanism in the TVZ.