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Wiley Open Access, Atmospheric Science Letters, 1(12), p. 96-103, 2010

DOI: 10.1002/asl.296

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Mapping Rift Valley fever and malaria risk over West Africa using climatic indicators

Journal article published in 2010 by Tourre Ym, Cyril Caminade, Jacques-André Ndione, Ndione Ja, C.-M.-F. Kebe, Jones Ae, Anne E. Jones, S. Danuor, S. Tay, Y. M. Tourre, Jean-Pierre Lacaux, C. Vignolles, J. B. Duchemin ORCID, I. Jeanne ORCID, Morse Ap and other authors.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

The aim of this study is to highlight the recent progress in mapping vector-borne diseases in West Africa using modelling and field experiments. Based on climatic indicators, methods have been developed to map Rift Valley fever (RVF) and malaria risk. Modelling results corroborate that northern Senegal and southern Mauritania appear to be critical areas for RVF outbreaks and that the malaria epidemic fringe is located at the northern edge of the Sahel. Future projections highlight that the malaria risk decreases over northern Sahel. This is related to a southward shift of the potential epidemic belt in autumn. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society