Significance An important problem in transplantation is to predict graft survival when an organ is transplanted into a recipient. We consider transplant of kidneys from deceased donors. Research in transplant immunology has shown that survival varies with the degree of genetic match between the donor and recipient, measured by human leukocyte antigen (HLA) genotypes. The greater the mismatch, the more likely it is that the patient’s immune system will produce antibodies that attack the graft. When considering whether to accept an organ, clinicians would benefit from accurate prediction of survival conditional on HLA mismatch. The analysis in this paper aims to improve prediction using available data on transplant outcomes and the distribution of HLA types within specific populations.