Published in

National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 44(115), p. 11262-11267, 2018

DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1804906115

Zenodo, 2018

DOI: 10.5281/zenodo.1286876

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Mammal diversity will take millions of years to recover from the current biodiversity crisis

Journal article published in 2018 by Matt Davis ORCID, Søren Faurby ORCID, Jens-Christian Svenning
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Red circle
Preprint: archiving forbidden
Green circle
Postprint: archiving allowed
Red circle
Published version: archiving forbidden
Data provided by SHERPA/RoMEO

Abstract

The incipient sixth mass extinction that started in the Late Pleistocene has already erased over 300 mammal species and, with them, more than 2.5 billion years of unique evolutionary history. At the global scale, this lost phylogenetic diversity (PD) can only be restored with time as lineages evolve and create new evolutionary history. Given the increasing rate of extinctions however, can mammals evolve fast enough to recover their lost PD on a human time scale? We use a birth–death tree framework to show that even if extinction rates slow to preanthropogenic background levels, recovery of lost PD will likely take millions of years. These findings emphasize the severity of the potential sixth mass extinction and the need to avoid the loss of unique evolutionary history now. This file contains all R code and raw data files necessary to reproduce our analyses.