Published in

MDPI, Energies, 17(12), p. 3379, 2019

DOI: 10.3390/en12173379

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The Impact of Jumps and Leverage in Forecasting the Co-Volatility of Oil and Gold Futures

Journal article published in 2019 by Manabu Asai ORCID, Rangan Gupta, Michael McAleer ORCID
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.
This paper is made freely available by the publisher.

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Abstract

This paper investigates the impact of jumps in forecasting co-volatility in the presence of leverage effects for daily crude oil and gold futures. We use a modified version of the jump-robust covariance estimator of Koike (2016), such that the estimated matrix is positive definite. Using this approach, we can disentangle the estimates of the integrated co-volatility matrix and jump variations from the quadratic covariation matrix. Empirical results show that more than 80% of the co-volatility of the two futures contains jump variations and that they have significant impacts on future co-volatility but that the impact is negligible in forecasting weekly and monthly horizons.